• Our response to Simon Watt’s climate planning letter to local councils

• August Webinars

Dear Member/Supporter

Climate minister Simon Watts has sent a letter to Mayors, Chairs and Chief Executives “regarding the use of climate change assumptions in council planning….”

It betrays a curious mixture of alarm, semi-denial and contradiction. His primary aim appears to be to prevent councils from being influenced by the latest “worst-case” predictions of the IPCC. He fears that this could result “in unnecessary costs being imposed on ratepayers, businesses and communities.”

“Unnecessary”, in the face of more storms?

“Worst-case assumptions”, he writes, should not become “the default basis for investment decisions….”

IPCC scientists use evidence to make two broad predictions – one for what is most likely to happen and another warning of a worst-case scenario. Evidence shows that this is a shifting scale. What was considered to be the most likely effects of global heating has taken over the worst case slot, leaving the world facing the possibility of a worse worst-case future.

This is the result of recent studies that have indicated that climate sensitivity to GHG emissions is greater than previously understood. This means that actual climate impacts have accelerated over time. In other words, things are getting worse faster than previously believed.

Our Climate Declaration’s Jack Santa Barbara comments:

“It is also the case that the intermediate scenarios between most likely and worst-case would be devastating for human wellbeing, resulting in disaster-related deaths, mass migration and massive damage to human infrastructure.”

Yes, Watts urges councils to plan for climate change but he exhorts them to “use a range of credible climate scenarios when assessing infrastructure and planning decisions.”

Which scenarios, one must ask, does he find credible?

His urgings appear to perpetuate the myth that expenditure is a binary choice between climate responses and other works - when that need not be the case. Abundant evidence shows that the two can frequently be combined in synergistic ways, giving better value than if either were addressed singly.

Energy and transport sectors are examples. Moreover many effective adaptation actions bring co-benefits, such as the improvements to health brought by the cleaner air as the number of EVs increases.

Climate impacts are already imposing massive, escalating costs - costs that could have been avoided had earlier planning been adequate. Let’s not perpetuate this inadequacy but encourage strong investment in well-targeted responses and avert worse consequences.

Watts reminds those charged with spending our rates and taxes and keeping us safe that many parts of the country already face “significant infrastructure challenges”.

One way or another we could be in for hard times. The OCD Team urges you to follow up the Minister’s letter with your own council. It’s accessible on the link below.

Letter From Minister Watts Regarding Climate Change Assumptions In Council Planning V2

116KB ∙ PDF file

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Our Climate Declaration - Upcoming Webinars

Wednesday, 12 August, 7.00 pm
Julie Haggie, Executive Director of Transparency International New Zealand, will discuss How Accountable Are Our Politicians? Julie will examine political accountability, transparency, and the systems that help ensure good governance.

Zoom: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82032241655?pwd=3zBq3ib0ImISOTbBo3cxzuPE0fN8mp.1

Wednesday, 26 August, 7.00 pm
Simon Wright, Chair of Trust Democracy will present Making a Trusted Democracy: How Can Deliberative Democracy Help? Simon will explore the role that deliberative democracy can play in strengthening trust, participation, and confidence in our democratic institutions.

Note: This webinar was originally scheduled for 5 August, but it was postponed to 26 August.

Zoom: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84946984615?pwd=nlQYbYZ58QeaabyVKhrVgc3WbHKkSO.1

Looking Ahead

We are also putting together a series of webinars featuring spokespersons from a range of New Zealand political parties. These sessions will provide an opportunity to hear directly from the parties on key climate and policy issues in the lead-up to the election.

We’re currently confirming speakers and dates, and we’ll share the full programme as soon as it’s finalised.

Join us

We need friends with inspiration, a passion for the future and some time to devote to behind-the-scenes work. We meet for about an hour by ZOOM every three weeks, but in between, we plan, and share ideas and information by email.

Join us, as an observer at our 3-weekly meetings. Email us at info@ourclimatedeclaration.org.nz so we can send you the link.

We also want to inform you that the webinar announced yesterday, which we had announced to be on 5 August, has been postponed until 26 August.

NZ is considered one of the least corrupt nations in the world, but just how accountable are our politicians to the laws and regulations in place and basic Kiwi values? And how adequate are those laws and regulations in the first place? How do special interest groups exert undue influence in the political process? What is being done to ensure that political decision-making is transparent and that governments work for the benefit of all, not just those with power and influence? What do NGOs need to know about how special interest groups work around existing safeguards to disrupt the democratic process?

These are some of the questions we’ll be exploring with Julie Haggie, Executive Director of Transparency International New Zealand.

Date: 12 August, 2026
Time: 7 – 8:30 PM
Zoom: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82032241655?pwd=3zBq3ib0ImISOTbBo3cxzuPE0fN8mp.1
Meeting ID: 820 3224 1655
Passcode: 002407

Julie Haggie is Executive Director of Transparency International New Zealand

Julie has 20 years of experience as a Chief Executive Officer and senior manager in regulatory, professional and NGO organisations.
She is an accomplished leader, advocate, negotiator and communicator. She has facilitated standards development, and research projects, and has overseen complaints and disciplinary processes.
Her earlier career was in secondary teaching. Julie is a strong advocate for civil society participation. She loves her leadership role at TINZ, as it enables her to interweave several decades of skill and knowledge towards great outcomes for Aotearoa.

This webinar is organized by Our Climate Declaration and co-sponsored by:
The Wise Response Society
Engineers for Social Responsibility
Degrowth Aotearoa New Zealand

Date: Wednesday 26 August
Time: 7 PM
ZOOM: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84946984615?pwd=nlQYbYZ58QeaabyVKhrVgc3WbHKkSO.1
Meeting chat link: https://us02web.zoom.us/launch/jc/84946984615
Meeting ID: 849 4698 4615
Passcode: 867260

In the face of declining trust in electoral representative democracy, can principles and insights from deliberative democracy be an antidote? With almost 20 years of experience in facilitating a range of deliberative processes in New Zealand, Simon Wright will share the basics of what it is, when to use it, its history in New Zealand, and how it can contribute to trust, problem solving and democratic reform.

Simon’s first experiences with deliberative processes were while in the secretariat for Toi te Taiao: the Bioethics Council, which was established in response to a recommendation of the Royal Commission on Genetic Modification. He has used deliberative processes at the Wellington City Council and, more recently, was on the project team for the 2025 Porirua Assembly on Climate, the first assembly process to be co-designed with tāngata whenua to honour te Tiriti. Simon also has significant experience with online approaches to engagement and deliberation, especially Pol.is, a platform designed to take participation to mass scale.

Some Background Material to Review

Watch this short 3 minute video about what deliberative engagement is -

This webinar is organized by Our Climate Declaration, and co-sponsored by:
Degrowth Aotearoa New Zealand
The Wise Response Society
Engineers for Social Responsibility
and the Nelson Tasman Climate Forum

David Spratt is the Research Director for the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration in Australia.

Description

Does responding to climate warming require both a fast reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) AND efforts to protect people and nature from the impacts (adaptation)? Should we do both? Can we do both? Would adaptation at the expense of emissions reduction create an unliveable world?

David put on a presentation, followed by a discussion and Q&A. These were recorded, and you can watch the recording below:

Date: 8 July, 2026
Time: 7 PM

Slides

2607 Adaptation Talk

3.02MB ∙ PDF file

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Papers discussing why Climate Change remains a serious risk

https://thebulletin.org/2026/05/sorry-climate-change-is-still-dangerous-no-matter-what-nonsense-trump-emits/#post-heading

https://www.climatecodered.org/2026/06/avoiding-worse-case-climate-warming-is.html#more

Background

https://www.climatecodered.org/2011/02/4-degrees-hotter-adaptation-trap.html

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-021-01808-9

https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/04/has-climate-policymaking-gone-completely-off-the-rails/

This webinar was cosponsored by:
Our Climate Declaration
Degrowth Aotearoa New Zealand
The Wise Response Society
Engineers for Social Responsibility
Seniors Climate Action Network
and the Nelson Tasman Climate Forum

David Spratt is the Research Director for the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration in Australia.

Description

Does responding to climate warming require both a fast reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) AND efforts to protect people and nature from the impacts (adaptation)? Should we do both? Can we do both? Would adaptation at the expense of emissions reduction create an unliveable world?

Join us for a presentation from David followed by a discussion and Q&A.

Date: 8 July, 2026
Time: 7 PM
ZOOM: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82669332704?pwd=mTYFGd5RaOyY2ShbrEJ4aEVnQ4VymM.1
Meeting chat link: https://us02web.zoom.us/launch/jc/82669332704
Meeting ID: 826 6933 2704
Passcode: 176378

Background

https://www.climatecodered.org/2011/02/4-degrees-hotter-adaptation-trap.html

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-021-01808-9

https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/04/has-climate-policymaking-gone-completely-off-the-rails/

This webinar is cosponsored by:
Our Climate Declaration
Degrowth Aotearoa New Zealand
The Wise Response Society
Engineers for Social Responsibility
Seniors Climate Action Network
and the Nelson Tasman Climate Forum

What has changed since then? And beyond the (perhaps obvious) fact that climate change is bad for health, why would it be useful to consider health when thinking about our response to climate change?

Jamie Hosking is a public health doctor and academic at Waipapa Taumata Rau - University of Auckland. His research and teaching focuses on environmental health, particularly the implications of transport policies for climate and health equity. He is a previous executive board member of OraTaiao: Aotearoa New Zealand Climate & Health Council.

Date: June 17th, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM

The path taken by Adam Currie has seen him arrested after co-organising a five day protest camp at the Denniston Plateau that culminated in shutting down a mine when protesters climbed into a coal bucket. This was an unusual action for Adam who has spent years focused on legal campaigning and community organizing work for a range of organisations including Greenpeace, Generation Zero and freefares.nz.

He spoke about his experiences and the potential of making polluters pay for a just transition to a cleaner, fairer Aotearoa.

Resources

More about Denniston

Get involved in 350

Climate handbook

What has changed since then? And beyond the (perhaps obvious) fact that climate change is bad for health, why would it be useful to consider health when thinking about our response to climate change?

Jamie Hosking is a public health doctor and academic at Waipapa Taumata Rau - University of Auckland. His research and teaching focuses on environmental health, particularly the implications of transport policies for climate and health equity. He is a previous executive board member of OraTaiao: Aotearoa New Zealand Climate & Health Council.

Date: June 17th, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM
Zoom: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/89606976209?pwd=QZiMhbd7uWZjxct6trLaGiRSSWi5An.1
Meeting ID: 896 0697 6209
Passcode: 497476

Additionally, we have prepared a proposal for updating the rules of the Our Climate Declaration charity. We have attached the proposed updated rules to this post, so that you can review them before they are put up for approval at the AGM.

Ocd Proposed Updated Rules

126KB ∙ PDF file

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AGM Guest Speaker

The path taken by Adam Currie, guest speaker at our AGM on Friday May 29 has seen him arrested after co-organising a five day protest camp at the Denniston Plateau that culminated in shutting down a mine when protesters climbed into a coal bucket. This was an unusual action for Adam who has spent years focused on legal campaigning and community organizing work for a range of organisations including Greenpeace, Generation Zero and freefares.nz.

He will speak about his experiences and the potential of making polluters pay for a just transition to a cleaner, fairer Aotearoa.

AGM May 29 Agenda and Convener’s Report

Ocd Agm Agenda 29 May 2026

160KB ∙ PDF file

Download

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Agm Conveners Report 2026

147KB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Invitation to Attend AGM

Date: May 29, 2026
Time: 4:00 PM
Zoom: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88346275576?pwd=bUxIaWgxNnRXR29FUnNUbGNpazREdz09
Meeting ID: 883 4627 5576
Passcode: 867817

This month leading international medical journal The Lancet published the 2026 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change.

“As the world boils,” it states, “….the news is bleak.”

The bleakness this time comes not from scientific reports but from an analysis of the political and social environments in which the climate-aware community struggles to be heard.

And it sounds like home.

As we are struggling to make climate issues a part of election discussions, the report notes a decline in engagement with the health effects of climate change by politicians, business leaders, media and the public. This “engagement gap” is, they say, the most immediate challenge facing Europe’s climate and health community.

Partly this disengagement is the result of public anxiety about cost-of-living pressures, exacerbated by the effects of wars in Ukraine and Iran, but it also reflects the hostility to climate policies and even to the science, shown by right-of-centre populist parties.

We know society needs profound changes if we’re to survive this heated, overshot world. But the process of change, the report comments, needs to create space for a broad and diverse community of activists. It quotes “Radical Justice: Building the World We Need” (2026) by Nani Jansen Reventlow:

“You do not have to get arrested and imprisoned. You do not have to lie in the road. You can find something you are good at and pursue your own path.”

The path taken by Adam Currie, guest speaker at our AGM on Friday May 29 has seen him arrested after co-organising a five day protest camp at the Denniston Plateau that culminated in shutting down a mine when protesters climbed into a coal bucket. This was an unusual action for Adam who has spent years focused on legal campaigning and community organizing work for a range of organisations including Greenpeace, Generation Zero and freefares.nz.

He will speak about his experiences and the potential of making polluters pay for a just transition to a cleaner, fairer Aotearoa.

AGM May 29 Agenda and Convener’s Report

Ocd Agm Agenda 29 May 2026

160KB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Agm Conveners Report 2026

147KB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Invitation to Attend AGM

Date: May 29, 2026
Time: 4:00 PM
Zoom: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88346275576?pwd=bUxIaWgxNnRXR29FUnNUbGNpazREdz09
Meeting ID: 883 4627 5576
Passcode: 867817

Lastly, a word from our Jack Santa Barbara:

The recent Fossil Fuel Transition Conference in Colombia is an important development in supplementing IPCC deliberations. But for it to succeed, there are a number of issues it needs to attend to. Here are some comments about how to upgrade the Santa Marta process.

Click the above link to view the article on Jack’s Substack.

The manifesto, “A Red Line for Airports,” is coordinated by the Stay Grounded network and highlights aviation’s impacts from climate heating to militarisation.

The Stay Grounded Network is inviting organisations and individuals to sign the manifesto:

https://actionnetwork.org/forms/10-measures-for-red-lines-for-airports/

Nathan is an energy engineer and Chair of the Wise Response Society who has been writing extensively about the current energy crisis and its implications (see below)

NZ will probably hit its climate targets. Not because of good policy, but because the economy is being forced into contraction by an energy crisis that mainstream institutions didn’t see coming - or chose not to. Nathan Surendran connects the immediate fuel emergency to the biophysical economics that conventional policy ignores: declining energy returns, thermodynamic constraints on transition, and a coming wave of insolvency and default that may cause more damage than fuel shortages themselves. He presents practical tools for community resilience, from mutual aid frameworks to fair rationing mechanisms, and argues that the response must start at the community level because government is not going to lead it.

Here is the webinar recording:

During the webinar, Jack Santa Barbara asked Nathan for a reliable source to understand the bigger picture of the oil supply predicament. Nathan now recommends this video from Chris Martenson:

OUTLINE: Be Prepared for a Lively Discussion

1. The good news on climate (that nobody wants to hear)

NZ is likely to meet its climate targets. Not because of policy. Because the economy is falling off a cliff. Energy price-driven demand destruction is cutting emissions faster than any government programme. Diesel above $4/litre, petrol not far behind. Businesses are closing, freight is contracting, discretionary travel has collapsed. When you can’t afford to burn fuel, you don’t burn fuel. Emissions fall. This is the climate trajectory nobody modelled - involuntary degrowth driven by energy supply disruption and price shock.

2. Why this is happening - the energy supply picture

The Strait of Hormuz closure and the wider Middle East conflict have taken out a significant share of global crude and LNG supply. NZ imports 100% of its refined fuel. 81% comes from refineries processing Middle Eastern crude. We have roughly 18 days of diesel physically onshore. The government’s fuel plan has no volumetric allocations. Force Majeure declarations have cascaded across every link in our supply chain. I’ve been tracking this in detail:
- “The Limits to the Energy Transition” (white paper):

- “Hoping the Ship Arrives Isn’t a Strategy”:

- “Every Country in Our Supply Chain Has Declared an Emergency”:

3. The default tsunami - the crisis before the shortage

Everyone is watching fuel gauges. But the more immediate shock may be financial. NZ insolvencies were at a 15-year high before Hormuz. Mortgage arrears at an 8-year peak. IRD tax debt past $9 billion. Household debt at 165-170% of disposable income. There was no buffer. When diesel costs flow through to freight, food, fertiliser, and farm input costs, the wave of business failures and mortgage defaults will hit before physical fuel shortages do. I’m publishing a piece on this shortly - “The Default Tsunami” - arguing we’re watching the wrong metric.

4. The deeper structure - biophysical economics

This isn’t a one-off geopolitical shock. It’s the predictable consequence of building a civilisation on a depleting energy resource. EROI decline means we spend more energy to get energy. The economy is an energy system using money, not a financial system using energy. The “seamless transition” narrative assumes the global supply chains, fossil fuel inputs, and critical minerals needed for transition will keep flowing. They are not flowing. Drawing on Hall, Keen, Smil, Hagens, Garrett, Delannoy.
- White paper covers this in depth:

5. What we can do - community resilience and policy

- Wise Response open letter: quantified essential use fuel allocation plan (with Mike Hodgkinson, Laloli Research)
- Tradable Energy Quotas (TEQs) as fair rationing:

Wise Response

Fair Shares: Why Tradable Energy Quotas Are New Zealand’s Best Option for the Crisis Ahead

Wise Response Society Inc…

Read more

5 months ago · 7 likes · 8 comments · Nathan Surendran

- “When the Trucks Stop” mutual aid guide

Wise Response

What can I do in response to the Fuel Supply Crisis in Aotearoa New Zealand?

At the time of writing, New Zealand has roughly 20 to 27 days of physical onshore fuel stocks. We import 100% of our refined fuel. The Strait of Hormuz crisis has already triggered Force Majeure declarations from Gulf and Asian suppliers, and the late March escalation has destroyed refining infrastructure that will take years to rebuild, if it is rebuil…

Read more

5 months ago · 88 likes · 13 comments · Nathan Surendran

- “No Fuel, Still Fed” regional food security framework

- Local action: council deputations, community preparedness networks
- Demand reduction, negawatts, fuel-free pathways

This webinar was organized by Our Climate Declaration, and co-sponsored by:

Degrowth Aotearoa New Zealand https://www.degrowth.nz/

The Wise Response Society https://wiseresponse.org.nz/

Engineers for Social Responsibility https://esr.org.nz/

The Nelson Tasman Climate Forum https://www.nelsontasmanclimateforum.nz/

Date: 29 April
Time: 7:30 PM
Zoom: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/86393820926?pwd=XlsEfAQn8FEWePltJZ7722pWTZcnUK.1
Meeting ID: 863 9382 0926
Passcode: 070776

Nathan is an energy engineer and Chair of the Wise Response Society who has been writing extensively about the current energy crisis and its implications (see below)

NZ will probably hit its climate targets. Not because of good policy, but because the economy is being forced into contraction by an energy crisis that mainstream institutions didn’t see coming - or chose not to. Nathan Surendran connects the immediate fuel emergency to the biophysical economics that conventional policy ignores: declining energy returns, thermodynamic constraints on transition, and a coming wave of insolvency and default that may cause more damage than fuel shortages themselves. He presents practical tools for community resilience, from mutual aid frameworks to fair rationing mechanisms, and argues that the response must start at the community level because government is not going to lead it.

OUTLINE: Be Prepared for a Lively Discussion

1. The good news on climate (that nobody wants to hear)

NZ is likely to meet its climate targets. Not because of policy. Because the economy is falling off a cliff. Energy price-driven demand destruction is cutting emissions faster than any government programme. Diesel above $4/litre, petrol not far behind. Businesses are closing, freight is contracting, discretionary travel has collapsed. When you can’t afford to burn fuel, you don’t burn fuel. Emissions fall. This is the climate trajectory nobody modelled - involuntary degrowth driven by energy supply disruption and price shock.

2. Why this is happening - the energy supply picture

The Strait of Hormuz closure and the wider Middle East conflict have taken out a significant share of global crude and LNG supply. NZ imports 100% of its refined fuel. 81% comes from refineries processing Middle Eastern crude. We have roughly 18 days of diesel physically onshore. The government’s fuel plan has no volumetric allocations. Force Majeure declarations have cascaded across every link in our supply chain. I’ve been tracking this in detail:
- “The Limits to the Energy Transition” (white paper):

- “Hoping the Ship Arrives Isn’t a Strategy”:

- “Every Country in Our Supply Chain Has Declared an Emergency”:

3. The default tsunami - the crisis before the shortage

Everyone is watching fuel gauges. But the more immediate shock may be financial. NZ insolvencies were at a 15-year high before Hormuz. Mortgage arrears at an 8-year peak. IRD tax debt past $9 billion. Household debt at 165-170% of disposable income. There was no buffer. When diesel costs flow through to freight, food, fertiliser, and farm input costs, the wave of business failures and mortgage defaults will hit before physical fuel shortages do. I’m publishing a piece on this shortly - “The Default Tsunami” - arguing we’re watching the wrong metric.

4. The deeper structure - biophysical economics

This isn’t a one-off geopolitical shock. It’s the predictable consequence of building a civilisation on a depleting energy resource. EROI decline means we spend more energy to get energy. The economy is an energy system using money, not a financial system using energy. The “seamless transition” narrative assumes the global supply chains, fossil fuel inputs, and critical minerals needed for transition will keep flowing. They are not flowing. Drawing on Hall, Keen, Smil, Hagens, Garrett, Delannoy.
- White paper covers this in depth:

5. What we can do - community resilience and policy

- Wise Response open letter: quantified essential use fuel allocation plan (with Mike Hodgkinson, Laloli Research)
- Tradable Energy Quotas (TEQs) as fair rationing:

Wise Response

Fair Shares: Why Tradable Energy Quotas Are New Zealand’s Best Option for the Crisis Ahead

Wise Response Society Inc…

Read more

5 months ago · 7 likes · 8 comments · Nathan Surendran

- “When the Trucks Stop” mutual aid guide

Wise Response

What can I do in response to the Fuel Supply Crisis in Aotearoa New Zealand?

At the time of writing, New Zealand has roughly 20 to 27 days of physical onshore fuel stocks. We import 100% of our refined fuel. The Strait of Hormuz crisis has already triggered Force Majeure declarations from Gulf and Asian suppliers, and the late March escalation has destroyed refining infrastructure that will take years to rebuild, if it is rebuil…

Read more

5 months ago · 88 likes · 13 comments · Nathan Surendran

- “No Fuel, Still Fed” regional food security framework

- Local action: council deputations, community preparedness networks
- Demand reduction, negawatts, fuel-free pathways

This webinar was organized by Our Climate Declaration

Our Climate Declaration

Our Climate Declaration aims for a just and sustainable post-carbon Aotearoa New Zealand.

Co-sponsored by:

Degrowth Aotearoa New Zealand https://www.degrowth.nz/

The Wise Response Society https://wiseresponse.org.nz/

Engineers for Social Responsibility https://esr.org.nz/

The Nelson Tasman Climate Forum https://www.nelsontasmanclimateforum.nz/

Electrifying the Titanic is a useful analogy to understand the limitations of the “electrify everything” proposed solution to humankind’s dilemma.

Of all the presumed so called ‘solutions to our climate crisis’ this rallying cry is central to the ‘net-zero’ call - no need for real change, just carry on as we are but with electric stuff rather than fossil powered, net-zero 2050, no worries.

But the reality is the climate crisis is far from our only existential threat,

Electrifying New Zealand would not in any way mitigate all the other existential crises we face here and globally, in fact it would exacerbate most of them, because they are all (just like climate change) driven by overshoot.

Electrification of everything would increase of the extraction processing and transportation of materials especially critical minerals and much more (NZ is 15^th worst in world per capita) requiring even more fossil fuel use and much more harm.

The reduction in consumption required in the wealthy world may be seen as radical – but also necessary to meet biophysical limits. This will not be convenient, but we must realise that how we in the wealthy world live is radical.

Click here to go to Dropbox and view or download Mike Joy’s slides for his presentation. If you want to see the full slide show, you will need to either log in to Dropbox, or download the slides and view them locally.

Mike Joy MSc, PhD (Ecology) is a Senior Research Fellow and Lecturer in Environmental Science at the School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington. Mike’s research includes ecological modelling, freshwater bioassessment, environmental policy, biophysical limits to growth and the role of energy in society.

Mike is an outspoken advocate for environmental protection in New Zealand and for this has received several awards including an Ecology in Action award from the NZ Ecological Society, the Charles Fleming Award for environmental achievement in 2013 and in 2023 the Callaghan Medal for science communication from the Royal Society of New Zealand. In 2015 he was awarded the Morgan Foundation inaugural River Voice Award and in 2017 the inaugural NZ Universities Critic and Conscience award.

Or listen to the audio-only version here.

Then on 1st April 2026, we held a webinar where people could come and discuss the issues raised in the interview. You can view a recording of the discussion here:

Here is the original invite to the discussion:

Luke Kemp’s Goliath: The History and Future of Societal Collapse is a scholarly and thoughtful exploration of how and why early empires evolved, and then inevitably fell into ruin. Sahra Kress and Jack Santa Barbara interview Luke about his research into how humans lived prior to empires (spoiler alert – people were better off in many ways), what features empires have in common that lead to their demise (the Goliath factor), how our current global empire compares with those of the past, and where we’re headed. And of course, we also explore what’s needed to deal with the current trends toward collapse.

Of all the presumed so called ‘solutions to our climate crisis’ this rallying cry is central to the ‘net-zero’ call - no need for real change, just carry on as we are but with electric stuff rather than fossil powered, net-zero 2050, no worries.

But the reality is the climate crisis is far from our only existential threat,

Electrifying New Zealand would not in any way mitigate all the other existential crises we face here and globally, in fact it would exacerbate most of them, because they are all (just like climate change) driven by overshoot.

Electrification of everything would increase of the extraction processing and transportation of materials especially critical minerals and much more (NZ is 15^th worst in world per capita) requiring even more fossil fuel use and much more harm.

The reduction in consumption required in the wealthy world may be seen as radical – but also necessary to meet biophysical limits. This will not be convenient, but we must realise that how we in the wealthy world live is radical.

Date: Wednesday, 8th April 2026
Time: 7:30PM
Zoom: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/85643265503?pwd=bcXAXLxklNwJscZ8dPCQGxwXaCopb6.1
Meeting ID: 856 4326 5503
Passcode: 390464

Mike Joy MSc, PhD (Ecology) is a Senior Research Fellow and Lecturer in Environmental Science at the School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington. Mike’s research includes ecological modelling, freshwater bioassessment, environmental policy, biophysical limits to growth and the role of energy in society.

Mike is an outspoken advocate for environmental protection in New Zealand and for this has received several awards including an Ecology in Action award from the NZ Ecological Society, the Charles Fleming Award for environmental achievement in 2013 and in 2023 the Callaghan Medal for science communication from the Royal Society of New Zealand. In 2015 he was awarded the Morgan Foundation inaugural River Voice Award and in 2017 the inaugural NZ Universities Critic and Conscience award.

Classical economics would have us believe our only choice is between economic growth or decline.

This belief has brought us to the point where, although the timing might be in question, the real choice we have to make is between managed decline or chaotic collapse.

This is the issue that motivates our webinar speakers in the first of this year’s programme.

It begins on April 1 at 7.30 with a discussion of the issues raised by Luke Kemp in his book Goliath’s Curse: the history and future of societal collapse. Kemp is a guest at the Auckland Writers Festival in May.

This is followed on April 8 by a webinar titled Electrifying the Titanic, given by Dr Mike Joy (details below).

Our webinar topic for May is under discussion, but on June 10 Dr Jamie Hosking, senior lecturer in the School of Population Health, Auckland University will present his research on Climate and Health.

Come Discuss our Interview with Luke Kemp, Author of Goliath: The History and Future of Societal Collapse

You can view the interview with Luke here:

Because of its length, we are arranging for a discussion of the issues raised for a separate event on 1 April. Bring your questions and ideas and participate in the discussion.

Date: Wednesday, 1st April 2026
Time: 7:30PM
Zoom: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82714358561?pwd=boR1HaxXBGPjg05a7ClP8gwbnntRAh.1
Meeting ID: 827 1435 8561
Passcode: 543473

Electrifying the Titanic

Electrifying the Titanic is a useful analogy to understand the limitations of the “electrify everything” proposed solution to humankind’s dilemma.

Of all the presumed so called ‘solutions to our climate crisis’ this rallying cry is central to the ‘net-zero’ call - no need for real change, just carry on as we are but with electric stuff rather than fossil powered, net-zero 2050, no worries.

But the reality is the climate crisis is far from our only existential threat,

Electrifying New Zealand would not in any way mitigate all the other existential crises we face here and globally, in fact it would exacerbate most of them, because they are all (just like climate change) driven by overshoot.

Date: Wednesday, 8th April 2026
Time: 7:30PM
Zoom: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/85643265503?pwd=bcXAXLxklNwJscZ8dPCQGxwXaCopb6.1
Meeting ID: 856 4326 5503
Passcode: 390464

Mike Joy MSc, PhD (Ecology) is a Senior Research Fellow and Lecturer in Environmental Science at the School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington. Mike’s research includes ecological modelling, freshwater bioassessment, environmental policy, biophysical limits to growth and the role of energy in society.

Mike is an outspoken advocate for environmental protection in New Zealand and for this has received several awards including an Ecology in Action award from the NZ Ecological Society, the Charles Fleming Award for environmental achievement in 2013 and in 2023 the Callaghan Medal for science communication from the Royal Society of New Zealand. In 2015 he was awarded the Morgan Foundation inaugural River Voice Award and in 2017 the inaugural NZ Universities Critic and Conscience award.

Earth Day and Earth Overshoot Day

Earth Overshoot Day, July 25th in 2025, marks the date when humanity’s demand for ecological resources and services in a given year exceeds what Earth can regenerate in that year.

Aotearoa New Zealand’s ‘Earth Overshoot Day’ 2026 is April 10th, so we would need almost 4 Earths if everyone lived as we do! We need to consume less, and care more about the consequences of our overconsumption.

The official theme for Earth Day 2026 (April 22nd) is “Our Power, Our Planet”.

“Progress does not happen in silence. It happens when people show up. Environmental progress is built through everyday action. Clean air, safe water, and climate resilience aren’t optional - they are essential. Every voice matters. Every action counts.”

See https://www.earthday.org/earth-day-2026/ for ideas on actions you could create in your community, and https://www.nelsontasmanclimateforum.nz/2025/04/04/take-the-jump-ambassador-training/ for individual actions.

Or listen to the audio-only version here.

Because of its length, we are arranging for a discussion of the issues raised for a separate event on 1 April. Bring your questions and ideas and participate in the discussion.

Date: Wednesday, 1st April 2026
Time: 7:30PM
Zoom: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82714358561?pwd=boR1HaxXBGPjg05a7ClP8gwbnntRAh.1
Meeting ID: 827 1435 8561
Passcode: 543473

Luke Kemp’s Goliath: The History and Future of Societal Collapse is a scholarly and thoughtful exploration of how and why early empires evolved, and then inevitably fell into ruin. Sahra Kress and Jack Santa Barbara interview Luke about his research into how humans lived prior to empires (spoiler alert – people were better off in many ways), what features empires have in common that lead to their demise (the Goliath factor), how our current global empire compares with those of the past, and where we’re headed. And of course, we also explore what’s needed to deal with the current trends toward collapse.

Some questions to discuss:

• Is the war in Iran an example of Goliath behaviour?

• Has the process of societal collapse started?

• What options are available to us to deal with our current and emerging risks?